Dolphin Tale Leaps Moneyball To #1 But New Pics Weak: 50/50 #4, Courageous #5, Dream House #5, Whats Your Number? #8

SATURDAY PM, 4TH UPDATE: Still on vacation in a different time zone. Unfortunately, my definition of time off still involves working almost 24/7. Yes, the newest numbers have changed the order yet again tonight and probably in the morning, too. The studios don’t agree, either. (Oh no, another confused weekend like the last one!)This crop of four freshmen failed to make much of a dent in moviegoing because holdovers still ruled the North American box office. But overall the weekend is up +10%from last year.Analysis coming. Here’s theTop 10: 1. Dolphin Tale (Alcon, Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,515 Theaters] Friday $3.4M, Saturday $6.5M,Weekend $14.3M (-25%), Estimated Cume $37.5M Terrific hold as Alcon uncorks anotherfeel goodfavorite. But the cume is stilllagging. And DreamWorks Animation/Paramount just pushed up the release of Puss ‘N’ Boots to October 28th — which will deprive Dolphin Tale of an extra week of alone time with families. 2. Moneyball (Sony) Week 2 [2,993 Theaters] Friday $3.8M, Saturday $5.5M,Weekend $12.2M (-37%), Estimated Cume$38.2M Excellent hold especially for a 2-quadrant pic. ButMoneyball‘s cume needsmore beer and peanuts. 3. Lion King 3D (Disney) Week 3 [2,340 Theaters] Friday $3.3M, Saturday $4.5M,Weekend$11M, Estimated Cume $79.6M Very impressive, still for this juiced uptoon. Snarked a rival studio exec, “I could have told them about that 2-weeks-only crap…” By the way, remind me to tell you aboutthe months of meetingsDisney’s Frankeneisnerledabout the story problems posed by ‘lion cub incest’ for the sequel after the originalwasreleased. Onlyon Dopey Drive… 4. 50/50 (Summit/Mandate) NEW [2,458 Theaters] Friday $2.8M, Saturday $3.8M,Weekend $9M The first thingto ponderabout this male Terms Of Endearment is that James McAvoy was supposed to play the guy with cancer. Instead, Joseph Gordon-Levitt came in at the last minute. Now it’s hard to imagine this truthful dramedy starring anyone else. Levitt is really becoming one of the most interesting young actors around even if he’s not box office — yet.Summit Entertainment and Mandate Pictures gave50/50 a surprisingly wide release this weekend: in the old days this pic would have been platformed so audiences could “find” it. But these days, with the skyrocketing costs of marketing, there’s simply no time or purpose to doing that anymore. (“It was always envisioned as a wide release picture as opposed to platformbecause of its playability,” an insider tells me.) Problem is, Summit thought the film wouldopen around the low double-digits. Nope, despite an ‘A-’ CinemaScore from audiences. On the other hand,studio sources claim the films negative cost is only $8 million. The question now is whether strong word of mouth will allow this pic toplay for several weeks and end up with a decent cume.As you must know by now,the screenwriter Will Reiserbased the story in part on his own life, and filmmaker Jonathan Levinepromoted not only the film and but alsocancer awareness.Pre-release, 50/50 was tracking well with both male and females and with older and younger audiences showing interest. Butthe really downer disease just kept audiences away despite partnershipswith leading national Cancer support groups likeStand Up To Cancer and Lance Armstrong’s Livestrongas well as many regional orgs.Marketing-wise, the film at first was positioned as a broad Seth Rogen comedy (not another one!). But thenthe studio imbued it with the feel ofa specialty film. TV buys focused on younger movie-goers first and then expanded to older males and females based on the evolved positioning. Summit beganan extensive word-of-mouth screening program in early August and premiered it at the Toronto Film Festival to a standing ovation. People, don’t complain about Hollywood’s crappy movies if you won’t support thequality ones. I’m truly disappointed that this movie didn’t do better.It deserves to be seen. 5. Courageous (Sony) NEW [1,161 Theaters] Friday $3.1M, Saturday $3.2M,Weekend $8.7M This movie was Fireproof 2 — only substitute fatherhood problems for marriage woes, and law enforcement officers for firefighters. Like most of these faith-based films, Sherwood Pictures’ Courageous was front-loaded because of pre-sales and church groups bussed totheaters. But Sony initially expected a mid-teens opening weekend even though it was playing in more than half as many locations as the other new releases.Still, it made the best per-screen average and rated a rare ‘A+’ CinemaScoreacross the board with men and women of all ages.Plus, these pics cost next-to-nuthin’ –Courageous made back its$2 million production budget in its first day ofrelease. Sherwood Pictures is based in Albany, Georgia, where moviemaking ministry Sherwood Baptist Church churns out these inspirational films aimed at Christians.Sony Pictures’s secular TV media was concentrated in outlets like Dr. Phil, Dr. Oz, Hallmark Channel, TLC, Lifetime, and TV Land as well asmore conservative-leaning outlets ranging from Fox News, CMT to Christian Broadcasting Network and Gospel Music Channel. The marketing budgetwas “modest and grassroots’, I’m told.Like Fireproof (2008), Facing The Giants (2006), Flywheel (2003), and the co-writers wereStephen Kendrick, who also produced,and Alex Kendrick, who also directed. They, along withproducers Michael Catt and Jim McBridetogethermake every movie decision at Sherwood where the four-man team also serve as pastors of the church.Fireproof opened at No. 4 in the nation this same time of year in 2008, eventually grossing $33 million theatrically, and becoming the No. 1 independent film that annum. It also was the highest-selling DVD in the nation the week of its release in January 2009. But it also starred former TV teen hearthrob Kirk Cameron, and Courageous was cast with unknowns. 6. Dream House (Morgan Creek/Universal) NEW [2,661 Theaters] Friday $2.9M, Saturday $3.7M, Weekend $8.8M Jim Robinson’s Morgan Creek shows yet again that it can’t make or market a movie to save its life. It can’t even handle publicity:MC’s moronsapparently can’t find my email address because I’ve received nada from them about this opener.Universal was just distributing; Morgan Creek paid for and did everything else. Directed by Jim Sheridan and starringDaniel Craig, Naomi Watts, and Rachel Weisz, they all must have needed the paydaybecause they’reway toomajor to do this critically-reviled drivel from a script credited to David Loucka. Seriously, this derivative haunted house tale gives new meaning to the definition of derivative. Worst were those TV ads thatstole scenes from The Shining. I think it’shigh time that the insufferable Robinson switches professions and starts selling used cars instead of used movies. 7.Abduction (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,118 Theaters] Friday $1.7M, Saturday $2.6M,Weekend$5.7M (-47%), Estimated Cume $19.2M 8. What’s Your Number? (Fox) NEW [3,002 Theaters] Friday $2M, Saturday $2.1M, Weekend $5.3M Anna Faris is the modern-day Goldie Hawn: it’simpossible not to like her. Unless you put her in a reallylousy R-rated New Regency fully-financed movie like this that Fox surrounded with a muddled marketing campaign vascillating between a female-empowerment pic and a run-of-the-mill rom-com. Problem is, daters haven’t talked about their “number” since the mid-1980s when sexually-transmitted diseases were scaring the bejesus out of singles. Audiences gave What’s Your Number? a ‘B’ CinemaScore. Pic cost only $20M.Its cost to Anna’s career may be more.(I’d like to see Faris in that remake of Hawn’sPrivate Benjamin she was supposed to do for New Line. It earned Goldie a Best Actress Oscar nom.) Directed byMark Mylod and produced by Beau Flynn and Tripp Vinson with screenplay credit given toGabrielle Allan & Jennifer Crittenden, based on the book 20 Times A Lady by Karyn Bosnak. 9. Contagion (Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,744 Theaters] Friday $1.4M, Saturday $2.3M,Weekend $5M, Estimated Cume $64.6M 10. Killer Elite (Open Road) Week 2 [2,986 Theaters] Friday $1.5M (-57%), Saturday $2.1M, Weekend $4.8M, Estimated Cume $17.4M FRIDAY 1 PM: These are very early numbers based on matinees. Therefore the order could change dramatically by tonight. My sources say that according to noon averages, this is simply a snapshot of where the North American box office is right now: 1. The #1 film at this time is Sony’s Courageous which is running 55% ahead of where Fireproof was at this time of day. (Fireproof went on to gross $6.8m for its first weekend. Estimates are for Courageous to earn $5M Friday and a weekend in the mid-teens. Not surprising that it’s trending in front right now because faith-based movies engender a lot of pre-sales as church groups bus to the theaters. 2. Right now it’s too close to call for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place as Alcon Entertainment/Warner Bros’ Dolphin Tale, Sony Pictures’ Moneyball, and Disney’s Lion King 3 are all ranking close together. 5. Summit’s 50/50 is estimated at $3M for Friday with a weekend of $9M. Note that this film is R-rated so matinees are not a good barometer of its strength at the box office. 6. Based on noon averages, Universal’s Dream House is trending toward a Friday estimated gross of $4M with a weekend of $11M if the box office picks up significantly tonight as predicted. 7. Fox’s What’s Your Number is a tough call this early. It could go to $3M today and $9M this weekend.

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